Tipping Points
Its hard to resist the urge to lead off with the canned pattern of opening with a dictionary definition, but I think context is important to establish (initially) common ground and then let the concept move from state to state as the conversation unfolds. So lets tie in Wikipedia first in order to open things up:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_point
...in physics...the point at which an object that is displaced from a state of stable equilibrium tips over into a new equilibrium state qualitatively dissimilar from the first.
...in sociology...the moment when something previously unique becomes common
In my mind there is also a natural affinity with
Crossing the Rubicon or reaching a
Point of No Return -- each convey a sense of coming upon and crossing a threshold, either unconsciously or coincidentally in the sense of a Tipping Point, and deliberate (and potentially with reckless abandon as in actively choosing) in the case of
Caesar.
Today's focus will be on
recognizing tipping points and
Leverage (leverage is an interesting concept and one that I plan on exploring quite a bit in the near term). For our purposes here lets think of leverage in the sense of a pivot point and magnifying output.
Therefore is it possible to:
a. Recognize the conditions of a pivot point, in time, in places, in social networks
b. Predict two or more potential outcomes from applying leverage at that point
c. Select an optimal set of force to apply leverage at the pivot point in order to effect an amplified change
On the recognition or
identification of pivot points brings to mind ideas of
situational awareness and
pattern recognition. At
inter.com we're chiefly concerned with the latter in order to improve the former, taking a
Systems approach that recognizes the user as an active agent.
On prediction of potential outcomes, that wholly depends on intent as the input, the uptake potential of each element in the network and their corresponding likelihood to repeat and amplify. Monte Carlo simulation can potentially provide some guidance here, though dynamic node updates would be critical to maintaining situational awareness.
Once the pivot point has been identified and an optimal path has been plotted the application of force on the pivot point can begin with on-going measurements of effectiveness as a feedback into the model to help reassess end state goal progress.
Which when combined leads us to the concept of
The Butterfly Effect.
So, today's inter.related concepts:
- Tipping Points
- Crossing the Rubicon
- Point of No Return
- Pivot Points
- Leverage
- Amplification
- Situation Awereness
- Pattern Recognition
- Systems Approach
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- The Butterfly Effect
